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Simulation of main agrarian policy indicators within beef meat market in The Republic of Croatia by AGMEMOD partial equilibrium model

David Kranjac, Krunoslav Zmaić, Ivan Štefanić, Sanja Jelić Milković, Nikola Raguž, Emil Erjavec (original scientific paper)


The mid-term simulation of the main agrarian policy indicators development of Croatian beef meat market by 2030 was made by the AGMEMOD (AGricultural MEmber State MODelling) partial equilibrium model. Model results until the end of the simulated period, assuming the continuation of the existing measures and instruments of the Common Agricultural Policy, confirm the development of negative trends within the beef market, observed through the review of historical data. By the end of the simulated period, it is expected that the total number of cattle will be reduced by 8.63%, and beef meat production by 24.46%, while domestic consumption will be growing by 25.91%. Negative production indicators with growing domestic consumption could cause the growth of beef meat imports by 82.68%, with a self-sufficiency level of 49% by 2030. Since Croatia’s accession to the European Union, producers’ price of beef meat has been stable, and stable development, with a slight downward trend, is expected until the end of the simulated period.